Here’s how the advanced stats viewed Missouri’s defense
Offense is here. Today, we go over the 2024 Missouri defense.
Much like the ‘24 offense, the ‘24 defense was very good, finishing 20th in the nation while allowing the 63rd-best success rate, 46th-best explosive rate, and 46th-best havoc rate. This was a defense that cranked back on the aggression as the year went on but did a little bit of everything really well with only a few stand out stats. The big difference between ‘23 and ‘24: a +57 spot jump in explosive plays allowed and a -25 spot fall in overall havoc rate created. If there was any question beforehand (and their likely wasn’t) then this stat profile definitely indicates that Missouri no longer implements a Blake Baker-style defense.
A not-very-nice 69th in rushing success rate paired with a 52nd-ranked opportunity rate isn’t as sterling a finish as you’d like, but ranking in the Top 15 in explosive runs allowed was a nice change of pace. Missouri faced a run on 61.8% of standard downs (30th) and 35.5% of passing downs (53rd) so it seems fairly clear that opponents liked running on Mizzou rather than passing the ball.
For all the angst we had about the corners and safeties giving up big plays, the pass defense was actually slightly better than the run defense…although, as you can see here (and definitely felt throughout the year), the passing game was where most of the explosive plays were given up.
Opponents were able to move the ball effectively against Mizzou in standard downs, managing tremendous efficiency without giving up a ton of negative plays. A rush defense that was much less effective than they were in ‘23 plays into that, as well as the fact that seemingly every Mizzou opponent was in the game until the end, mitigating the necessity to throw it more. Mizzou lack of constant aggression certainly gave their opponents more chances at keeping up with the chains and maintain possession.
Ah, here we go! An actual strength! For all of its pedestrian approaches on standard downs, once the Tigers got an opponent into obvious passing situations it was lights out, ranking 12th overall. Yes, it’s also the situation where they gave up many big plays but the efficiency numbers plummeted here and the sack rates rose. All good things.
It’s hard to put your finger on exactly what Mizzou did well defensively but, whatever it was, it lead to tremendous play in passing downs, leading to excellent 3-and-out percentages and third-down defense. The EPA/play shows you a defense that seemingly lacked identity but was able to make offenses be inefficient and do things that they weren’t very good at. In martial arts terms the ‘23 Missouri defense was krav maga and excelled at aggression while the ‘24 Missouri defense was aikido and excelled at countering.
And here’s the big time strength: 3rd-downs. Mizzou ranked in the Top 10 in every 3rd-down distance you can think of except the 1-2 yard range…in which they ranked 31st. 8th in 3rd-and-3-to-6, 9th in 3rd-and-7+, and 2nd in 3rd-and-11+, rounding out to an incredible 29.8% success rate on all 3rd-downs, ranking 5th in the country.
This was an ok red zone defense which is slightly disappoint since the ‘23 defense ranked in the Top 10 in success rates allowed within the 20-yard line. It’s definitely something to monitor as we enter the second year of the Batoon system.