The Tigers not only beat two teams they were supposed to beat, but provided themselves a much-needed cushion that could help when mid-March comes around.
Predicting the NCAA Tournament field has always been a fun exercise.
However, prognosticating the field two months from the Big Dance is like trying to predict the weather two months in advance.
“…one thing that is likely to remain the same is the futility of a preseason bracket when it comes to forecasting Selection Sunday,” Chris Dobbertean of Blogging The Bracket wrote in November. “The 2024 edition of the November (bracket) projection featured just 42 of the 68 teams in the real thing. That’s fairly common, considering the total was a mere 40 in 2023 and 43 in 2022.”
Sure enough, the projected field looks a lot different than it did before the season. Teams that seemed to be on the guest list for the Big Dance in November have lost that presumed invitation (Miami (FL), Creighton, Xavier), while others have not only skyrocketed into the conversation, but some have even positioned themselves for top-four seeds (Florida, Michigan, Mississippi State, Memphis, Oregon). In all likelihood, at least one of the teams in parentheses will see its stock change by mid-March.
For now though, one of the teams that’s seen a jump in its stock as of late has been Mizzou.
After enduring a smackdown at the hands of No. 2 Auburn on Jan. 4, the Tigers rebounded with a dominant home win over LSU before surviving a late push from Vanderbilt. The consecutive wins moved Mizzou to 2-1 in the SEC for just the second time since the 2018-19 season.
More importantly, the Tigers took care of two teams that they were projected to beat.
“At the end of the day, these are the games you have to win in this conference,” head coach Dennis Gates said. “You’ve got to take care of home court.”
#Mizzou up four spots to No. 38 in KenPom after their win over Vandy. Should also see solid boost in the NET rankings tomorrow.
Only a Quad-2ish win, but holding serve at home matters more than usual this year. Also an early edge over Vandy in tiebreaker math.
— Matt Harris (@MattJHarris85) January 11, 2025
Mizzou ranked ahead of LSU and Vanderbilt prior to the contests, and after MU’s win on Saturday, it sits at No. 38 in KenPom, while the Commodores sunk to No. 51. Along with South Carolina, the Bayou Bengals bring up the rear of the SEC at No. 70 (the Gamecocks are No. 71).
Furthermore, the wins are valuable considering how historically awesome the SEC has been through a little more than halfway through this season. The discourse surrounding the conference’s collective greatness has mirrored the way in which people talk about SEC football.
Unlike some who think that the SEC is in a different class on the gridiron, the conference actually might be just that on the hardwood. Nine SEC teams made last week’s edition of the AP Top 25, with six of them making up the top 10. The Commodores have felt the brunt of the tough schedule already, dropping a home contest to Mississippi State after earning a hard-fought victory over LSU in the game prior.
“I’m two SEC road games in, but I don’t need more than that,” Vanderbilt head coach Mark Byington said after the game. “It’s tough. It’s really really tough.”
It’s a subject Gates has spoken on numerous times this season even before conference play started. On Dec. 4, Gates took a question about free throws and turned it into what seemed like a pitch to get as many SEC teams into the NCAA Tournament as possible.
“We have 12 teams that I think can legitimately get into the NCAA tournament,” Gates said. “Will (the selection committee) allow that to happen? Will they pick a 7-11 conference team? That’s what’s going to happen. You may have two teams, 7-11 (in-conference), make it to the NCAA Tournament. Will the committee allow that to happen? Are they going to watch these games how they need to watch them and select the best teams?”
As of now, Gates’ belief has a solid chance of coming true. In Joe Lunardi’s Jan. 10 edition of Bracketology, 13 SEC teams made the cut, which would break the previous NCAA Tournament record of 11, which was set by the Big East in 2009. That number didn’t include Texas, who was Lunardi’s first team out. Palm had 11 SEC teams in, with Arkansas and Vanderbilt checkin in amongst the first four teams out. Mizzou currently projects as one of the last four teams in, and it could get bumped into the 64-team field after tonight.
“Our (the SEC’s) last-place team may go to the NIT,” Gates continued. “That’s what I think about our conference.”
The good thing about a tough schedule is that Mizzou will likely have a lot of opportunities for Quad 1 wins, which often get brought up as one of the first qualifiers for a bid to the NCAA Tournament. As of now, the Tigers have 10 more opportunities for to earn such victories. The (potential) bad news is that too many losses in those games could leave Mizzou out of the tournament, especially because recent history says so.
In 2023, Oklahoma State was the first team left out of the field; after the bracket was revealed on CBS’ selection show, NCAA Selection Committee Chair Chris Reynolds explained to the CBS studio crew why the Cowboys weren’t included.
“Well, when you look at their résumé, they had 18 opportunities in the Quad 1 and they won only six games,” Reynolds said. “They had opportunities in the non-conference schedule to win some games to enhance their résumé and they fell a little short.”
The year prior, Oklahoma went 7-11 in the Big 12, which sent six teams to the Big Dance that season. However, despite finishing with a higher NET ranking than multiple teams that made the field (40), a 5-12 record against Quad 1 opponents played a part in the Sooners being relegated to the NIT. In 2019 (the most recent tournament before 2022 that wasn’t affected by COVID-19), NC State had a compelling case for an at-large bid, going 9-9 in the ACC, which sent seven teams to the Big Dance. But its 1-8 record against teams that made the tournament (seven of them being to ACC teams) kept the Wolfpack out of the 68-team field.
Mizzou’s next game is a road contest against No. 8 Florida, who’s leapt into the conversation as a potential No. 1 seed a couple of months into the future. The Tigers will have to face No. 14 Mississippi State and No. 1 Tennessee on the road in back-to-back games. Mizzou Arena will be visited by No. 23 Ole Miss, No. 10 Texas A&M, No. 5 Alabama and No. 6 Kentucky. MU also plays No. 17 Oklahoma twice.
It’s probable that going 7-11 in the SEC will be enough to earn an at-large bid. But the bubble is a nerve-racking place to be come Selection Sunday, which makes winning the games you’re supposed to win extra-paramount. The Tigers have gotten off to a good start, but the climb remains uphill from hereon out.