Would the Tigers still be in the playoff mix if they’d won at South Carolina?
Some observations from week number 13 of the college football season, served up in four quarter style. Legal Disclaimer: these views are my own and may be really dumb.
1st Quarter: Mizzou – Playing the ‘what if’ game
Well, our Tigers stand 8-3 on the year with one game to go. It’s only one game off where most of us felt they’d be, and we all know it came down to the heartbreaker at South Carolina. If Mizzou had managed to pull that one off, just where would the Tigers be in the pecking order for a potential playoff bid?
Obviously it’s pure speculation but I believe the CFP Committee would have had the Tigers ranked at #18 last week. Going on that assumption, I think they would have moved Mizzou up to #14 after everything that took place over this last crazy weekend. I can’t decide if it’s more fun or more depressing to think about it that way, but I do feel the Tigers would have had an outside shot at making it into the playoff field. The odds would have been low, as they would have needed some help still, but there would have been a chance. And that’s what we were all hoping for going into the season.
If you would have told me Mizzou was going to go 10-2 this season and not be a shoe-in for the playoff field, I would have called shenanigans. But even at 10-2, based on what’s taken place this year, it wouldn’t have been guaranteed at all, and that’s crazy to think about a 10-2 SEC team potentially being left out.
With that, here is my guess at what the CFP Committee rankings would have looked like in my imaginary scenario where the Tigers beat South Carolina and were 9-2 heading into the regular-season finale against Ar-kansas. There are nits to pick with this I know, so let me know what you think in the comments, if you care to go down this rabbit hole with me.
- Oregon (11-0)
- Ohio State (10-1)
- Texas (10-1)
- Penn State (10-1)
- Notre Dame (10-1)
- Miami, Fla. (10-1)
- Indiana (10-1)
- Georgia (9-2)
- Tennessee (9-2)
- SMU (10-1)
- Boise State (10-1)
- Clempsum (9-2)
- Alabama (8-3)
- Mizzou (9-2)
- Ole Miss (8-3)
- Arizona State (9-2)
- Tulane (9-2)
- Iowa State (9-2)
- BYU (9-2)
- Texas A&M (8-3)
- Kansas State (8-3)
- Colorado (8-3)
- Illinois (8-3)
- UNLV (9-2)
- Army (9-1)
2nd Quarter: SEC – This is a three-bid league after the chaos of Saturday
SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey took some body blows this weekend. Going into Saturday, his league had five teams in the top-14 of the CFP rankings. All five probably weren’t going to get in, but there was a decent chance of that happening. Four were likely to be the minimum, but not any more after the chaos we saw evolve around the conference.
Georgia and Tennessee were the biggest winners in the league, as their playoff possibilities went up significantly. I think we’ll see Georgia slotted in the #6-7 range this week, and Tennessee around #9. The Vols should wrap up an at-large bid with a win this weekend against Vanderbilt (not the given it used to be, of course), while Georgia should improve to 10-2 with a win over rival Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs have wrapped up a spot in the SEC Championship Game against the winner of the Texas-Texas A&M game.
After A&M dropped a head-scratcher at Auburn Saturday evening, the Aggies’ only path to the playoff now has to be an upset of Texas followed by an upset of Georgia in Atlanta. Not real likely, but that would cause some immense sweating at the league offices in Birmingham, Ala. come playoff selection Sunday.
In this scenario, Texas would be 10-2 but without a signature win and a schedule that did them no favors. It wouldn’t be shocking to see them left out of the at-large field in that scenario. If the Aggies did win out, that would leave Georgia at 10-3 after losing this hypothetical SEC title game scenario. Would that be enough to get the Bulldogs in? I think so, but us Mizzou fans have some PTSD from getting the shaft after losing in a conference championship game, so I wouldn’t put the odds at 100% for the Bulldogs getting in.
Oklahoma beating #7 Alabama 24-3 was one of the nuttier outcomes we’ve seen all season. The Tide played an out-of-body game against a Sooner team that is so challenged offensively. But the OU defense is legit, as Tiger fans know very well, and that unit was the difference in the game. I find it hard to see a path for Alabama to make the 12-team playoff field now. It’s not at zero percent, but they’ll need an impressive win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl, and then likely need some help with some other upsets around the country.
Ole Miss came into last Saturday ranked #9 in the CFP poll, and clearly in control of its playoff destiny. The Rebels needed only to win as prohibitive favorites at Florida and then at home against Mississippi State. Didn’t happen, of course, as the surging Gators dropped Ole Miss to 8-3 and effectively left them dead in the water as it relates to playoff probabilities.
With all of that, the SEC’s hopes of getting five teams in the playoff field are likely dead after a damaging weekend of cannibalism. They’re looking like a three-bid league now.
3rd Quarter: National – Who’s in P4 conference title games
Those of us in the SEC atmosphere know full well that Georgia has punched its ticket as one of two contestants in the upcoming SEC Championship Game in Atlanta. In the other Power 4 conferences, there are a couple teams who have also clinched, but there’s more to be decided in the final weekend of the regular season.
Here’s a quick digest of who the conference races are down to in the power four leagues:
- SEC (Atlanta, Ga.) – IN (Georgia); POSSIBLE (Texas, Texas A&M)
The winner of the Texas-Texas A&M game is in, the loser will have to rely on an at-large CFP playoff bid…
- ACC (Charlotte, NC) – IN (SMU); POSSIBLE (Miami, Fla., Clemson)
Miami is in the title game if it wins at Syracuse this weekend. A Hurricane loss would vault Clemson into the the game. The Tigers have finished their conference schedule, and face South Carolina this weekend.
- Big Ten (Indianapolis, Ind.) – IN (Oregon); POSSIBLE (Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana)
The Buckeyes are in the driver’s seat. If they win at home this weekend against rival Michigan, they advance to Indy for a rematch with Oregon, who handed them their only loss of the season back in October. A Buckeye loss to the Wolverines would require subsequent losses by Penn State and Indiana for OSU to still advance to the championship game.
Penn State is next in the pecking order. If they win at home against Maryland, they’ll need a Michigan upset of Ohio State to happen to reach Indianapolis.
Indiana has a harder road. The Hoosiers have to win at Purdue and hope for Ohio State and Penn State to lose their games in order to make the title game in their home state.
- Big 12 (Arlington, Texas) – IN (None); POSSIBLE (Nine teams still alive mathematically)
This one is still wide open. The Big 12 office has indicated that there are over 250 possible combinations of who could meet in the title game. Most likely, the participants will come from the grouping of four teams sitting at 6-2 in league play heading into the final week of the regular season: Arizona State, BYU, Iowa State and Colorado. However, another five teams sit just one game back at 5-3, including: Baylor, Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia.
According to reports, the majority of tiebreakers appear to favor Iowa State and Arizona State should all four of the teams atop the standings win this week. On Friday, Colorado can apply pressure to the others with a home win over hapless Oklahoma State. Then on Saturday, Arizona State plays at rival Arizona, Iowa State hosts Kansas State and BYU hosts Houston. If all four of the 6-2 teams were to win, we’d see the Sun Devils versus the Cyclones in Jerry’s World on December 7th.
4th Quarter: Dealer’s Choice – Let’s send the Tiger seniors out in style
Saturday’s game against Arkansas is always a fun one for Tiger fans. Yes, the Arkansas game has been a manufactured rivalry since joining the SEC, but it’s developed into a decent one in the past 12 years.
Arkansas fans may feel differently, however, since the Tigers hold a solid 8-2 edge in games played since 2012 – Mizzou’s first year in the league. The Razorbacks have never won in Columbia, going 0-6 all-time thus far. Granted, four of the five games played in CoMo since 2012 have been decided by one score, so there’s been some drama involved.
Adding to Saturday’s emotions will be the fact that it’s Senior Day at Faurot Field. The early weather forecast isn’t real great, with a high temperature of 39 degrees, but only a 20% chance of rain. Let’s hope the rain holds off, the temps sneak into the 40s, and Tiger fans come out in full force to celebrate a senior class that has given us a lot of fond memories the past few years.
I count 29 players on Mizzou’s current roster who are listed as either graduate students or seniors. It doesn’t mean all of them won’t return, as transfer rules and eligibility waivers can get a bit murky, but the bigger point is we do know we’ll be seeing the last of some outstanding Tigers on Faurot this Saturday. Let’s send them out in style!